Brazils come down in price but could turn again
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B R A Z I L KERNELS - February 2005
At last we can see Price finally coming down, after all time highs never seen before, we still see demand out weighing availability, we have some high priced containers afloat which we hope will fill the gap, before the new crop starts to come forward & the pipeline is able to fill.
As prices fall buyers will be reluctant to jump in & take cover, price will continue to decline until most likely July or August, prices presently are still high for spot but are looking cheap for July to December we can quote PLEASE CONTACT US.
Please do not fall into the false sense of security prices will turn yet again, there are good reasons for the weakening prices we see, apart from the main fact prices reached levels never seen before, which were far too high. Whilst at origin both Bolivia & Brazil are hoping to see much lower first cost for the Raw pods, the collectors are seeking prices they closed with last season, of course this is not the case although they could abandon collection if they see prices fall too much, Brazil for sure is collecting good quantities & a lot of this raw seed is going across the border & whilst goods come into Bolivia, the Bolivian collectors are under more pressure if the gap is filled from Brazil the Bolivians will be forced to reduce their price.
Last Crop: despite all the reports of a short crop & tight supplies which was indeed true, many things kept the world starved of stocks, heavy rain falls, blocked roads, civil commotions, increasing prices forced shippers to pay more for the raw material & in turn forced prices up to the buyers, many defaults from shippers held stocks back too, then we had the hurricanes which again stopped the pipeline being filled.
We still believe last year produced a very good crop, despite the apparent shortage we have never seen before, the worrying fact I feel is if the crop was big & eventually may have been record exports, time will tell the facts of the real crop size, if this proves to be true then where did it all go?? Simple the world consumption increased, there is no doubt with Brazils in shell now virtually non existent in Europe due to EU REGS, then Brazil Kernel consumption would increase, we know this for certain from our own sales certainly in the produce sector of many supermarkets & retail outlets Brazil Kernels filled the gap.
If you compare the world production of other nuts like Hazels, Cashews, Almonds etc by far produce much bigger crops & yet we are faced with Hazels increasing in price at around $11,000 pmt or £6,000, there is a certain increase in World consumption in Nuts & Dried fruits.
As I said before I can only say that most commodities seem to be going limit up, like Hazels Pecans & Brazils having doubled in price last year are far more attractive now, cashews have seen some rises, there certainly seems to be dramatic increases in Nut Consumption, maybe the world has seen the benefits of nuts & dried fruits being a good & healthy food.
Brazil nuts are known to have the highest concentration of selenium ! !
more than 2,500 times than any other edible nuts,
Selenium is also found in Broccoli, mushrooms, yeast, cabbage, celery, cucumbers, radish, garlic & whole grains.
Selenium is a very powerful antioxidant, this has been proven to protect against Heart disease, & cancer like prostrate cancer. Selenium reduces the ageing process & stimulates the immune system, Brazils are well known for the good source of fibres & minerals, like phosphorus, copper & iron.
Most people are most likely to be deficient in selenium, People with Aids have been reported to be low in Selenium & there appears to be a link between depleted levels & heart disease.
I guess if we look at the new members of the Eu like Latvia, Slovenia, Poland etc, then of course China & India both booming economies with such massive demand for Nuts & dried fruits alone slowly coming to the markets maybe their economies will grow & in turn we must change our minds as to real levels & prices of nuts & dried fruits, who knows maybe this is the future & we will have to get used to it, I repeat don’t be fooled with prices coming down as I do feel there will be disappointment, who knows what further civil unrest will hit us from South Amercia, already we have seen changes & fuel protests in certain regions like Santa Cruz in Bolivia sought self rule which could have a severe impact on Bolivia’s economy.
Once again I would like to say thanks for your time, patience & indeed understanding during the past crop & what can only be described as a really tough year!!
Lets hope we see normality this year.
Thanks for your support. Tony Farndell
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